Indonesia’s trade surplus poised to widen in Feb – poll

Indonesia’s trade surplus for February is poised to have slightly expanded compared to the previous month, according to a Reuters poll conducted on Thursday.

This is attributed to a slower contraction in exports and increased imports in anticipation of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan.

The survey, comprising 20 economists polled between March 7-14, indicates a median forecast of a $2.32 billion trade surplus for last month, up from the $2.01 billion surplus recorded in January.

Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia, has been consistently generating monthly trade surpluses for over three years, peaking in April 2022 due to a commodity boom. However, these surpluses have gradually decreased since last year due to weakened exports, particularly in key commodities such as coal and palm oil, amid reduced global demand.

Economists in the poll anticipate a 6.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) contraction in exports for February, compared to an 8.06 per cent decline in the previous month.

Meanwhile, imports are expected to have surged by 9.3 per cent annually, in contrast to a 0.36 per cent increase in January.

Import activities typically escalate prior to Ramadan, which commenced in March this year in the world’s most populous Muslim-majority nation.