Central Asian economies to grow by 5.4% in ’24 – EBRD
Central Asian economies are projected to slow down at 5.4 per cent in 2024, followed by a rebound to 5.9 per cent growth in 2025, a latest report by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) showed on Wednesday.
The report highlights a plateauing of intermediary trade with Russia, which previously fuelled significant growth for many Central Asian economies in 2023.
Additionally, severe weather events in Kazakhstan and Mongolia are expected to impact their short-term growth negatively. Despite these challenges, the region’s overall outlook for both 2024 and 2025 remains positive.
Kazakhstan:
The EBRD forecasts Kazakhstan’s GDP to grow by 4.5 per cent in 2024, with an acceleration to 5.5 per cent in 2025 due to higher oil production, agricultural rebound, and potential privatisations.
The region’s largest economy, Kazakhstan, saw strong growth in 2023 driven by consumer demand and public spending. Retail and wholesale trade were pivotal, fuelled by rising wages and consumer lending.
Kyrgyz Republic:
The economy is projected to grow by 8.5 per cent in 2024 and seven per cent in 2025, driven by increased gold exports, higher remittances, ongoing construction activity, and strong domestic demand.
Mongolia:
Magnolia’s growth is projected to slow to five per cent in 2024 but is expected to accelerate to 8 per cent in 2025 due to favourable external demand, increased agricultural output, and expansion of manufacturing and mining activities.
Tajikistan:
GDP is expected to grow by 7.5 per cent in 2024 and seven per cent in 2025 due to increased public infrastructure investment, policies encouraging private sector investment in import-substituting manufacturing and agriculture, and growth in remittances.
Agriculture contributes 25 per cent to GDP and employs 60 per cent of the population, with risks from climate change, adverse weather, and fluctuations in Russia’s demand for Tajik labour.
Turkmenistan:
The economy is expected to grow by 6.3 per cent in 2024 and 2025, driven by increased public and private investment and diversification of gas exports through new contracts with Türkiye and Iran.
Uzbekistan:
The report revealed Uzbekistan’s GDP to increase 6.5 per cent in 2024 and 6.0 per cent in 2025. The country’s economy expanded by 6.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2024.
