Dollar Slips After Weak U.S. Economic Data
The U.S. dollar edged lower Thursday against other major currencies, including the euro, after data showed that the American economy is likely to grow slowly in the near term.
The Conference Board’s leading economic index fell 0.1% in March following three months of gains, defying expectations for a rise.
Separately, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s index of business conditions fell to 1.3 in April from 2.0 in March.
“The market is more receptive to paying attention to disappointing news right now,” said Michael Woolfolk, global markets strategist at BNY Mellon Global Markets in New York.
The weak data weighed on the greenback. The ICE dollar index , a measure of the dollar against a basket of six other major currencies, fell to 82.537 Thursday from 82.649 late on Wednesday.
The WSJ Dollar Index , a rival gauge that uses a slightly larger basket, declined to 73.70 from Wednesday’s close at 73.87.
But there wasn’t significant movement among the major currency pairs on Thursday because of a lack of market-moving information, said Woolfolk, who added that the market could be watching for the direction of the equity market.
This contrasts with action in the wake of the Bank of Japan’s April 4 monetary-policy announcement. The effort by Japan to reflate its stagnant economy has been a key driver in the yen’s moves in recent weeks, with selling of the Japanese currency pushing the dollar toward the ¥100 yen level. “This is kind of a pause after quite a bout of volatility in the past few weeks following the BOJ announcement,” said Woolfolk.
U.S. stocks declined Thursday, including a fall in Apple shares for the second session, as investors scrutinized corporate earnings.
The euro rose modestly against the U.S. dollar, recovering some ground following a sharp loss the previous day spurred by anticipation of an interest-rate cut from the European Central Bank. The euro bought $1.3054, up from $1.3028 late Wednesday.
The euro gave up more than 1% Wednesday after Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that the ECB may lower interest rates if economic data warrant such a move.
But rate reductions won’t resolve the region’s troubles, he said, adding that elected leaders need to find ways to bolster economic growth.
“Since Weidmann seems to be malleable to the idea of a rate cut, we think this brings German economic data into focus as a key driver of [the euro] in the coming weeks,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com in London.
A lower benchmark interest rate could make the euro less appealing, as rate reductions tend to depress yields on sovereign bonds. The ECB earlier this month kept its key interest rate at 0.75%, a historic low, meeting widely held expectations.
Weidmann spoke ahead of the start of the International Monetary Fund meeting this weekend. Officials from the Group of 20 major economies are also slated to meet starting Thursday, with the Bank of Japan’s recent launch of an aggressive monetary-easing program expected to be in focus.
The yen saw gains last Friday and at the start of the week after the U.S. Treasury Department warned Japan “to refrain from competitive devaluation and targeting its exchange rate for competitive purpose.”
The dollar on Thursday traded at ¥98.23, on par with ¥98.10 in late trading on Wednesday in North America.
The yen briefly strengthened against the greenback after Japan posted a narrower trade deficit for March. The result was roughly in line with an expected 1% rise, according to a survey of economists conducted by Dow Jones Newswires.
Elsewhere, the British pound changed hands at $1.528, up from $1.5238 on Wednesday.
Carla Mozee in Los Angeles contributed to this report.
Ahram
