Asia Shares Edge Up; Markets Look For Central Bank Largesse

Asian shares inched ahead while the dollar lost ground as investors counted on easy money from central banks in the euro zone and United States to offset the risk of further disappointment from global economic data.

Activity was sporadic with Japanese markets closed for a holiday and China off until Thursday. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was up 0.3 percent, but off a six-week high touched on Friday.

Singapore’s share market added 0.2 percent .FTSTI, while Australia’s market .AXJO gained 0.4 percent thanks to ongoing strength in banking stocks. South Korean shares .KS11 were a fraction softer, as was the Hang Seng Index .HSI.

In Europe, Italian stocks were set to rally after a coalition government was named over the weekend, putting an end to two months of political impasse. .EU

Financial spreadbetters expect Italy’s FTSE MIB .FTMIB to surge 178 points, or 1.1 percent on Monday. Britain’s FTSE 100 .FTSE to open 0.05 percent, while Germany’s DAX .GDAXI was seen up 0.17 percent and France’s CAC 40 .FCHI 0.10 percent.

Spot gold firmed to $1,469.26 an ounce, consolidating last week’s 4 percent bounce. <GOL/> U.S. crude oil was off 40 cents at $92.60 a barrel while Brent lost 46 cents to $102.70. <O/R>

While recent disappointing growth data from the U.S., China and the euro zone has undermined commodity markets and pushed down bond yields, it has had limited impact on global equities.

“We think this reflects a faith by market participants in the ‘monetary policy put’, which associates market supportive policy reactions to disappointing economic developments,” said analysts from Barclays in a client note.

“For now, it seems to us that this is justified, and partly on that basis, we continue to recommend overweight exposure to equities.”

Indeed, speculation is rife that the European Central Bank (ECB) will have to cut interest rates at its policy meeting on Thursday given the dreary run of economic news from the region.

A Reuters poll of 76 economists showed a narrow majority of 43 expected a rate cut of 25 basis points, taking the ECB’s main refinancing rate to a record low of 0.50 percent. <ECB/INT>

However, market rates, such as that for bank-to-bank lending, are already so low that such an easing might have no more than a symbolic impact.

“The ECB will probably cut the refi rate 25 basis points, but since eonia has been trading near zero for most of the past nine months, this move shouldn’t weaken the euro unless the bank drops hints that some more dramatic policy — like a negative deposit rate — is back on the agenda,” said Anna Hibinio, a global forex analyst at JPMorgan.

The single currency was a whisker higher at $1.3049 on Monday, but corralled by resistance at $1.3093 and support around $1.2950.

The dollar also lost altitude on the yen, dipping to a one-week low of 97.36 yen, before steadying at 97.66. It ended last week on the defensive at 98.26 after U.S. economic growth came in short of forecasts.

In contrast, sterling extended the gains made since data last week showed the country narrowly dodged a triple-dip recession, reaching a 10-week peak of $1.5525.

The U.S. Federal Reserve also meets this week and is widely expected to keep its current pace of bond buying at $85 billion a month. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will announce its decision at 1815 GMT on Wednesday.

Most analysts assume the recent string of underwhelming data will strengthen the hand of the doves at the Fed and temper any talk of tapering back the bond buying program.

Investors will also have plenty of economic news to navigate this week. A splurge of data from the U.S. includes several readings on manufacturing and the always-influential payrolls survey.

In Asia, China has surveys on manufacturing and services while Japan releases a batch of reports on retail sales, industrial output and employment on Tuesday.

Companies reporting earnings include Pfizer (PFE.N), Facebook (FB.O) and General Motors (GM.N).

Of the 271 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date, 69 percent have beaten analyst expectations – above the 63 percent average since 1994 and slightly over the 67 percent beat rate over the past four quarters.

Reuters