Asian demand for US WTI crude set to rise in Q4 ’25

Asia is expected to boost imports of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude in the fourth quarter of 2025, as rising Middle East oil prices improve the arbitrage window, according to traders.

Benchmarks for Middle East grades, including Dubai and Murban, strengthened this month due to robust Asian demand for high-sulphur oil, narrowing the price gap with light-sweet WTI. Analysts said WTI shipments for November arrivals are now economically viable for Asian refiners.

U.S. producer Occidental has already sold WTI crude to Japan’s Taiyo Oil at a premium of $3.50 per barrel to October Dubai quotes. Traders noted that WTI is pricing up to 75 cents per barrel lower than similar-quality Murban oil, further enhancing its appeal.

Murban supply has tightened after Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. redirected some volumes to domestic refining, supporting prices. With Murban becoming more expensive and political risks surrounding Russian oil mounting, analysts expect more Asian refiners—especially in India—to turn to WTI and Gulf alternatives to diversify sources.

The shift follows a recent threat by US President Donald Trump to impose 100 per cent secondary tariffs on countries continuing to import Russian oil unless Moscow advances toward a Ukraine peace deal.

Attribution: Reuters
Subediting: M. S. Salama