Dollar Inches Lower, But Gains May Lie Ahead

The dollar tipped lower Monday in holiday-thinned trade, extending mild losses from end of the previous week, but with some analysts looking for strength in the U.S. currency over the months ahead. The ICE dollar index DXY -0.04%  , tracking the greenback against a basket of six rivals, eased to 80.546 from 80.556 late Friday in North America. The WSJ Dollar IndexXX:BUXX -0.07%  saw a similarly modest retreat to 73.82 from Friday’s 73.85.

While a stronger-than-expected upward revision to U.S. quarterly growth failed to lift the dollar on Friday, several analysts pointed to an upward path over the longer term, so long as U.S. data continue to show improvement and the Federal Reserve continues to roll back its stimulus.

BK Asset Management managing director Kathy Lien is among those bullish on the dollar for 2014, tipping the Fed to further taper its bond purchases “at almost every meeting next year, bringing [quantitative easing] to a halt by the end of 2014.”

“The gradual unwinding of stimulus makes the current uptrend in the dollar one that should last well into the new year. We expect the greenback to perform the best against currencies whose central banks are dovish and looking to ease further,” she wrote, naming the yen, euro and Australian dollar as units likely to give ground to the dollar.

However, Lien added that, “unfortunately, we may have to wait until the new year before the key levels in dollar-yen and euro-dollar are broken because trading grinds to halt over the holidays, and no major U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release for the rest of the year. Starting Monday, consolidation should be the main theme of trading.”

With many major markets taking at least some time off during the Christmas week, the most-traded currency pairs saw only small movement Monday.

The euro EURUSD +0.04%  bought $1.3675, little changed from late Friday’s $1.3671, while the British pound GBPUSD +0.12%  inched up to $1.6345 from $1.6328.

The Japanese yen USDJPY -0.03%  held its level, with the dollar trading at ¥104.06, basically flat from ¥104.05 Friday, while the Australian dollar AUDUSD +0.06%  edged up to 89..26 U.S. cents from 89.18 U.S. cents.

Source: Moneymarket