EBRD lifts Egypt’s 2025 growth forecast to 4.8%
Output to expand by 4.8% in 2025
Egypt’s economy is expected to expand by 4.8 per cent in 2025 before moderating to 4.5 per cent in 2026, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said on Thursday. The lender lifted its 2025 forecast by 0.8 percentage points from May.
According to the EBRD Regional Economic Prospects September 2025 report, Egypt’s economy accelerated to 4.2 per cent year-on-year in the first three quarters of fiscal 2024/25, up from 2.4 per cent a year earlier, driven by a rebound in manufacturing and solid wholesale, retail and transport activity.
Inflation averaged 15.7 per cent between January and July, about half the level recorded in the same period of 2024. Remittances surged 82.7 per cent between July 2024 and March 2025, while foreign investors boosted holdings of short-term government debt to 44.7 per cent of outstanding treasury bills by March.
Net international reserves climbed to $49 billion in August, the highest in more than two decades, the EBRD added.
Despite the gains, debt servicing is set to consume about 65 per cent of budget revenues in fiscal 2025/26, the report warned. The bank said sluggish structural reforms remain a drag on long-term growth and pointed to downside risks from regional conflicts and potential delays in the International Monetary Fund-backed programme.
“However, debt levels remain elevated, with servicing costs expected to absorb 65 per cent of budget revenue in the fiscal year 2025/26 while slow progress in the area of structural reform continues to hold back potential growth.” the report read. “Downside risks remain significant and relate to a further escalation of regional conflicts and lack of progress in the area of structural reforms, possibly delaying further the implementation of an IMF- supported programme.”
“Against the backdrop of macroeconomic stabilisation and gradual improvement in investor sentiment, output is expected to expand by 4.8 per cent in 2025 and 4.5 per cent in 2026.”
Attribution: Amwal Al Ghad English
Subediting: Y.Yasser