El-Sisi One Year On: Mohamed Aboul-Ghar

Egyptian Liberal Democratic Party leader and long-time political activist Mohamed Aboul-Ghar was not at the forefront of those public figures who called on the then Field Marshal Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi to run for president following his ouster, as minister of defence, of Mohamed Morsi in the summer of 2013 following the massive anti-Morsi demonstrations.

Traditionally hesitant about the ability of those subscribing to military discipline to catch up with what it takes for politics, Aboul-Ghar was one of those who argued that it would be best if El-Sisi kept his job as head of the military. But when he came round to seeing El-Sisi “as the inevitable president in the lack of other options,” Aboul-Ghar decided to support El-Sisi.

This support, he said this week in an interview with Ahram Online, was never unconditional but rather one that was related to a realisation that state affairs, on the home and foreign fronts, had to be promptly attended to at a moment “of serious concern about the very well-being of the country.”

A year later, Aboul-Ghar is still not the most enthusiastic supporter of El-Sisi – although he would still argue that the current head of the executive remains the only choice there is for the country “at least for now.”

And in the past 12 months, Aboul-Ghar argued, El-Sisi actually lived up to some of the expectations that were associated with his presidency – but certainly not those related to the home front, in the political sense of the word.

Aboul-Ghar is unhesistant about qualifying foreign policy as “El-Sisi’s highest scoring point.”

“He managed to remove or at least to put aside the unease that many countries in Africa as in Europe and elsewhere had about the regime that was formulated by the 30 June political players.”

Speaking hours after the ambassador of Germany in Cairo had suggested no small unease about a scheduled visit of the president to Berlin due to the wide apprehension over the multiple death verdicts issued against Morsi and other leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood earlier this week, Aboul-Ghar admitted that there is a part in the international community, especially in the West, that is still sceptical about the ruling authorities in Cairo. “True, but El-Sisi managed to get them to deal with us on, let us say, a pragmatic basis or at least managed to get them to give him the benefit of doubt,” he argued.

In addition to cooling down international tension, Aboul-Ghar argued that El-Sisi too managed to successfully recapture old domains of traditional good Egyptian international relations – especially with Russia and China.

“I am even willing to argue that in the final analysis his rapport with Arab capitals is quite stronger – maybe much stronger in my opinion – than the one that [former president Hosni] Mubarak had with the key Arab capitals towards the end of his rule,” Aboul-Ghar argued. “The generous financial support that the Arab capitals put forward to support Egypt post the ouster of Morsi is not just about their dislike of the Muslim Brotherhood but it is also about their good chemistry with the president,” he added.

On the economic front, Aboul-Ghar is willing to still argue that El-Sisi established basic stability. “I think it is fair to say that the times of deep fear over our economic survival have been passed,” he said.

This said, the leader of the ESDP is not willing to argue that El-Sisi’s score on the economy is high. He argues that it is too hard to judge given the opaque picture on this front.

“We hear of mega projects like the extension of the Suez Canal and we hear that it will cost billions of pounds but these projects had never been subject to public debate and there are no feasibility studies that had been presented for the consultation of public opinion; these projects are being conducted in the absence of a legislative power and with no one capable of following up or assessing the projects; this also goes for the so called ‘new capital’ that was put forward out of nowhere,” Aboul-Ghar said.

The adoption of a long series of economic bills in the absence of parliament and away from any public discussion and the hesitation that the government is showing about these laws are also worrying signs for Aboul-Ghar.

The worst part on the economic front, Aboul-Ghar argued, is the adoption of the budget without any public debate and without making sure that it is compatible as it should be with the requirements put in the constitution.

Equally disturbing for Aboul-Ghar in his assessment of the economic performance of El-Sisi during his first year in office is “the continued lack of a long-term plan to address the wide range of serious economic ailments.”

“Honestly, with economy you cannot be moving without a plan, a long-term plan; and you cannot be expecting to deliver if this plan is not compatible with the priorities of the people and if it is not supported fully by the people,” he stated.

Unlike most critics of El-Sisi’s economic performance, Aboul-Ghar is not including the exaggerated expectations that were projected in relation to the economic conference, which was held in Sharm El-Sheikh in March, as part of the president’s failing points. He argued that it was clear anyway that the volume of investments that “the media” promised as a result of the conference were too unrealistic – “and again there is no transparency so we don’t know exactly what is moving forward on this track.”

But when all is said and done, Aboul-Ghar is convinced that the economic conference is essentially a story of political success. “It is about the international show of willingness to deal with the ruling authorities – whether they liked them or not,” he explained.

The economic conference was also an opportunity for serious deals on energy projects “and this is the most crucial part given the acute energy problem that the country is suffering from,” he added.

It is on the home front that Aboul-Ghar is scoring El-Sisi a very low grade. “It is very unfortunate but the country is being run by the same tools and at times by the same people of the regime of [former president Hosni] Mubarak,” Aboul-Ghar argued.

The state is also demonstrating the same ailments that were there during the Mubarak era, he added. “This is especially the case as I have been repeatedly saying with the abrasive interference of the ministry of interior in political affairs like the preparations for the legislative elections and the aggressive style that police officers are again demonstrating towards the wider public,” he stated.

Aboul-Ghar would not hesitate to qualify the law on the regulation of demonstrations that the president had promised to amended as one of the worst signs of “the lack of commitment to liberties that El-Sisi demonstrated in his first year in office.”

“El-Sisi promised repeatedly to have the law amended and he promised to offer immunity to the young men and women who had been imprisoned by virtue of this law but he did not; it is very disturbing that he did not do so because this was the starting point of a split within the civil forces who are all opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood,” Aboul-Ghar argued.

The split within the “civil camp,” he added, has inevitably eroded the power base of the president during his first year in office. “The president should have demonstrated a firm commitment to the cause of liberties, especially as it is a key demand of the January revolution and also of the 30 June revolution but he did not,” he added.

To further aggravate his home front performance, Aboul-Ghar added, El-Sisi had all but fully shelved the constitution and had been allowing one delay after the other of parliamentary elections and consequently continuing to be in charge of the executive and the legislative powers throughout his first year in office.

Meanwhile, Aboul-Ghar added, El-Sisi has wittingly or unwittingly allowed a political freeze that is bound to be reflected on the municipal elections “if it happened because I hear that there is a call to have member of the municipalities assigned; this would be a huge violation of the constitution.”

Aboul-Ghar regrets the absence of credible serious polls that could have assessed the popularity of El-Sisi a year later after he was elected president. He, however, is willing to say that “given that throughout his first year El-Sisi was successful in securing a high level of stability, it would be fair to assume that he still has a decent majority given that stability is a key concern for many if not most Egyptians.”

Source : Ahram online