EU to release internal payment metrics to indicate risks

The Central Bank of Europe (ECB) intends to release regularly internal payment metrics used by officials to assess inflation risks as they deliberate on interest rate reductions, Bloomberg reported.

The designated salary monitors, devised to furnish salary data swiftly and frequently referenced in policymaker speeches, will be publicly accessible “later this year,” as stated by a spokesperson.

This possibility would furnish investors with a more comprehensive understanding of the insights officials are gathering regarding wage pressures within the economy.

Depending on the timing of the monitors’ release, heightened transparency may coincide with the commencement or continuation of an interest rate reduction cycle by the ECB, assuming market expectations—for June—are accurate.

The institution, headquartered in Frankfurt, collaborated with national central banks to formulate these measures, compensating for the absence of consistent and timely data across the region.

Without them, policymakers would encounter a deficiency in a vital information category essential for assessing inflation. Data on wages and labor costs could indicate whether robust wage pressures pose a risk of entrenched accelerated price growth.

In February, ECB President Christine Lagarde underscored salaries as “an increasingly significant driver of inflation dynamics in the forthcoming quarters.” Following the Governing Council’s decision earlier this month to maintain the deposit rate at a record high of 4 per cent, she emphasised officials’ heightened attention to wages.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane recently noted that the most comprehensive metric from national accounts arrives with a delay of over two months.

With numerous wage negotiations slated for early 2024, updates to the salary monitors will supply “crucial information,” according to Lane.

In a paper published last month, ECB staff emphasised that wage growth in the euro area remains elevated without reaching an inflection point.

Lane further stated last week that salaries are trending positively.