Fitch Ratings: Neutral ’25 outlook for Latin America’s sugar, ethanol

Fitch Ratings has maintained a neutral outlook for Latin America’s sugar and ethanol industry in 2025, as detailed in its latest report. International sugar prices are expected to average 20.8 cents per pound, marginally lower than the 20.9 cents per pound projected for 2024.

Profitability in the sector is forecasted to remain steady, with stable costs and minor fluctuations in sugar and ethanol prices in Brazilian Reals.

Flavio Fujihira, Director at Fitch Ratings, noted that while a potential increase in ethanol blending with gasoline presents a positive opportunity, additional ethanol production from corn may cap price increases.

Rating affirmations are set to dominate the year, with all three internationally rated issuers carrying Stable Outlooks. On the national scale, three of the four rated issuers maintain Stable Outlooks, while one has been assigned a Positive Outlook. Despite rising investments in cane fields, these ratings are supported by robust cash flow generation and stable leverage levels.

Attribution: Fitch Ratings

Subediting: M. S. Salama