Goldman Sachs expects ‘modest’ emerging market rebound in 2019

Investment bank Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday that it expected emerging market shares, currencies and bonds to see a modest rebound next year.

“We expect modest positive returns across the major EM indices next year, albeit with low risk-adjusted returns,” analysts at Goldman said in a 2019 outlook report.

They forecast that emerging market equities would see the biggest rise at 12 percent in dollar terms, while EM currencies should appreciate by around 2 percent on average due to economic improvements and a modestly weaker U.S. dollar.

On local currency bonds they added that closely tracked GBI-EM debt index to provide around 10 percent returns on an “unhedged” basis and including “duration effects”.

MSCI’s 24-country EM stocks index .MSCIEF is down 16 percent in 2018 so far.