IMF ‘marginally’ lowers China’s 2024 growth forecast to 4.8%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday revised downward its growth forecast for China’s economy in 2024. In its latest World Economic Outlook Report, the IMF projected that China’s GDP will grow by 4.8 per cent in 2024, down from the 5.0 per cent forecast in July. The IMF maintained its forecast for 2025 at 4.5 per cent.

This marks a reversal from the upward revision made in July, when the IMF raised its projection for China’s 2024 GDP growth to 5.0 per cent from 4.6 per cent in April.

“In China, the slow-down is projected to be more gradual. Despite persisting weakness in the real estate sector and low consumer confidence, growth is projected to have slowed only marginally to 4.8 percent in 2024, largely thanks to better-than-expected net exports.” the IMF said in its latest report.

“Compared with that in April, the forecast has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point in 2024 and 0.4 percentage point in 2025. Recent policy measures may provide upside risk to near-term growth.”

Attribution: IMF October World Economic Outlook 2024