Indian rupee to hold near record low ahead of Fed decision

The Indian rupee is expected to open stable near its all-time low on Wednesday and trade within a narrow range before the US Federal Reserve‘s policy announcement later in the day.

Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will start the day at around 83.71-83.72 against the US dollar, nearly unchanged from its previous close of 83.7275.

The dollar index edged lower to 104.3, while most Asian currencies saw slight gains, with the offshore Chinese yuan up 0.1 per cent at 7.23.

“Month-end dollar inflows and lower crude oil prices could support the rupee (on Wednesday),” said Dilip Parmar, a foreign exchange research analyst at HDFC Securities.

Brent crude oil futures have fallen eight per cent so far this month and were last trading at $79.30 per barrel.

The Fed is widely expected to maintain interest rates, investors will scrutinise Chair Jerome Powell‘s comments for clues about the future path of monetary policy.

Interest rate futures currently imply about 68 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, beginning in September.

“The Fed should leave the door ajar to lower interest rates without endorsing the futures market’s aggressive bet on a September cut,” DBS Bank said in a note.

Traders will also monitor equity-related outflows, which could put pressure on the rupee. Foreign investors offloaded more than $650 million worth of Indian stocks on Tuesday, according to provisional exchange data.

Attribution: Reuters