JPMorgan revises China’s economy ’24 forecast

JPMorgan revised their forecast for China’s economy in 2024, projecting a growth rate of 5.2 per cent, up from their previous estimate of 4.9 per cent, according to Xinhua.

This update was announced by Zhu Haibin, JPMorgan’s chief China economist, during the JPMorgan Global China Summit held in Shanghai on Wednesday.

Zhu highlighted China’s impressive 5.3 per cent year on year (YoY) economic expansion in the first quarter of 2024, surpassing market expectations and indicating a strong start to the year.

He emphasised three key developments in China’s economy during the initial quarter: a rise in industrial added value surpassing overall economic growth, diversification of export products and destinations, and the emergence of new technologies and industries as growth drivers.

Zhu further stated that he expected the renminbi exchange rate to remain relatively stable throughout the year. He noted, “Although the yuan faces the pressure of short-term depreciation against the US dollar, the downward pressure will be eased as the US Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in the second half of the year,”

Notably, the JPMorgan Global China Summit is an important annual gathering of industry leaders in China, facilitating connections between the global investment community and China’s market. This year marks the 20th edition of the event.