Mexico expects 2-3% economic growth in ’25

Mexico expects economic growth of 2-3 per cent in 2025, with a fiscal deficit of 2.5 per cent GDP, according to Bloomberg citing official data.

Inflation is forecasted to decline to 3.3 per cent by 2025 from 4.4 per cent in 2024.

President Lopez Obrador’s last year in office may see a 5 per cent GDP deficit and public debt rising to 50.2 per cent by 2025.

The budget predicts a primary deficit of 1.4 per cent in 2024 and a surplus of 0.9 per cent in 2025. Higher oil prices and tax collection are expected to offset expenses. Increased US export interest and public spending boost Mexico’s economy.

Claudia Sheinbaum leads in polls ahead of national elections. Sheinbaum plans to cap Pemex’s crude output at 1.8 million barrels/day, focusing on renewable energy.

Crude output is forecasted at 1.85 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and 1.86 million bpd in 2025. Crude exports are estimated at 968,000 bpd in 2024 and 958,000 bpd in 2025.

The Mexican crude basket is expected to average $71.3 per barrel in 2024 and $58.4 in 2025.