OPEC+ lowers ’24 global oil demand forecast

OPEC+ has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 downward by 106,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.9 million bpd, still above the pre-pandemic average of 1.4 bpd.

This adjustment reflects actual data received and slightly reduced expectations in certain regions. The OECD is projected to see marginal demand growth of over 0.1 mb/d, primarily driven by the OECD Americas, while non-OECD demand is anticipated to increase by 1.8 mb/d YoY.

The outlook for 2025 has also been lowered by 102 bpd to 1.6 mb/d, with non-OECD countries leading growth, particularly from China, Other Asia, the Middle East, and India. OECD demand is expected to rise by about 0.1 mb/d.

In September, crude oil prices experienced significant declines. The OPEC+ Reference Basket (ORB) fell by $4.82 per barrel, or 6.1 per cent, to an average of $73.59/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $6.01 (7.6 per cent) to $72.87/b, while NYMEX WTI dropped $6.06 (8.0 per cent) to $69.37/b.

GME Oman’s front-month contract also declined by $4.63 (6.0 per cent) to $72.91/b. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI spread increased by 5¢ to $3.50/b. Oil futures forward curves flattened but remained in backwardation, with money managers shifting to a net short position in the ICE Brent contract.

On the supply side, non-DoC liquids supply is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2024, driven by the US, Canada, Brazil, and China, with the forecast for 2025 remaining unchanged at 1.1 mb/d. Additionally, crude oil production from DoC countries fell by 0.56 mb/d in September, averaging approximately 40.10 mb/d, according to secondary sources.

Attribution: OPEC MOMR October 2024

Subediting: M. S. Salama