OPEC+ sees 3.1% global growth in ’24, oil demand up 1.6 mb/d

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) has maintained a solid global economic outlook, with global growth projected at 3.1 per cent for 2024 and 3.0 per cent in 2025.

Strong performance in the US, Brazil, and Russia, alongside China’s stimulus measures and continued growth in India, are key contributors. In the OECD, the US economy is expected to moderate slightly in 2025, while the Eurozone will see limited improvements.

Moreover, Japan is projected to rebound after a challenging start to 2024. China is on track to meet its 5 per cent growth target, while India is forecast to recover in 4Q24.

Global oil demand is forecast to increase by 1.6 mb/d in 2024, driven by non-OECD countries, particularly China, India, and other emerging markets.

Demand growth in OECD Americas will be led by jet fuel and gasoline. In 2025, global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d, with non-OECD countries continuing to lead the charge. OECD demand growth will be modest, primarily driven by the Americas.

On the supply side, non-DoC supply is expected to expand by 1.3 mb/d in 2024, with the US accounting for half of this increase. In 2025, non-DoC liquids supply will grow by 1.1 mb/d, with the US again leading the growth, followed by Brazil, Canada, and Norway.

Attribution: OPEC MOMR December 2024

Subediting: Y.Yasser