Thai exports surge, surpassing expectations

Thailand’s exports rebounded in April, surpassing analysts’ estimates with a notable surge in growth, according to Reuters citing data released by the Thai commerce ministry on Thursday.

Customs-based exports climbed by 6.8 per cent compared to the previous year, exceeding the 0.35 per cent increase projected in a Reuters poll. This rebound followed March’s 10.9 per cent decline.

Despite the monthly drop of 6.7 per cent from March, exports are anticipated to sustain a modest increase throughout the second quarter.

The commerce ministry attributes the surge to the growing demand for industrial goods, supported by the global economic recovery and alleviating inflationary pressures. Additionally, fluctuating weather patterns are anticipated to drive up agricultural prices, further bolstering export prospects.

Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of the ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office, stated, “We expect exports to rise by 0.8 per cent to 1 per cent in the second quarter.” However, Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council, cautioned that “geopolitical problems pose high risks” despite the positive export momentum.

For the first four months of 2024, exports posted a 1.4 per cent increase compared to the same period last year. The ministry maintains its export growth target of 1 per cent to 2 per cent for the year, following a 1 per cent decline in 2023.

In April, exports of industrial goods surged by 9.2 per cent year on year (YoY), while rice exports witnessed a remarkable increase, with volumes soaring by 64.2 per cent and value surging by 92 per cent.

Thailand, being the world’s second-largest exporter of rice after India, anticipates exceeding its export target of 7.5 million metric tons in rice for the year.

Export destinations varied in April, with shipments to the United States soaring by 26.1 per cent year-on-year, while exports to China experienced a 7.8 per cent decline and those to Japan fell by 4.1 per cent.

April also saw imports rise by 8.3 per cent compared to the previous year, surpassing the 5.05 per cent forecast in the poll. Consequently, the month recorded a trade deficit of $1.64 billion, slightly lower than the predicted deficit of $1.7 billion.