Trump tariffs push US, global recession risk to 60%, warns JP Morgan

The likelihood of a US and global recession this year has surged to 60 per cent, up from 40 per cent, according to a warning from Wall Street giant JP Morgan.

The brokerage cites escalating trade tensions driven by President Trump’s new tariff measures as a key trigger.

“Disruptive US policies has been recognised as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year,” JP Morgan strategists, led by Bruce Kasman, stated in a note on Thursday.

Kasman added that the recent tax hikes are likely to have a ripple effect, deepening through retaliatory measures from trade partners, declining business confidence, and mounting supply chain disruptions.

“The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified through retaliation, a slide in US business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions.” Kasman said.

Other major financial institutions, including Barclays and Deutsche Bank, echoed the concerns. They cautioned that if the new tariffs remain in place, the chances of the US economy tipping into recession will only grow stronger.

Attribution: Reuters