U.S. retail sales post record increase; big hole remains

U.S. retail sales increased by the most on record in May after two straight months of sharp declines as businesses reopened, offering more evidence that the recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic was over or drawing to an end.

The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday followed news early this month that the economy created 2.5 million jobs in May. Layoffs are also ebbing and manufacturing activity is improving, though production remains at very low levels.

Still, the record jump in retail sales recouped only a fraction of March and April’s decreases, leaving consumer spending and the economy on track for their biggest contraction in the second quarter since the Great Depression. The economy slipped into recession in February.

“The economy and retail sales have hit the bottom in May and we have a V-shaped first stage of recovery,” said Sung Won Sohn, a business economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. “However, it will take quite some time to get back to anywhere near the levels of retail sales and economic activity we enjoyed around the turn of the year.”

Retail sales jumped 17.7% last month, the biggest advance since the government started tracking the series in 1992. Data for April was revised to show a record 14.7% drop in sales instead of the previously reported 16.2%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would rise 8% in May.

Retail sales fell 6.1% on a year-on-year basis in May.