US, China clash over corn import needs for 2024-25

A widening gap has emerged between the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Chinese authorities regarding their estimates for China’s corn imports in the upcoming marketing year (October 2024 – September 2025), Reuters reported on Tuesday.

This discrepancy could significantly impact US corn exports, which have recently faced competition from Brazil.

On Friday, the USDA projected Chinese corn imports to remain steady at 23 million metric tons for the 2024-25 season. In contrast, China’s Ministry of Agriculture significantly lowered its forecast, predicting only 13 million tons – a five-year low.

The two agencies differ on key factors influencing Chinese corn imports. The USDA anticipates China’s domestic corn prices staying high relative to the global market, incentivising corn imports.

Conversely, China expects its record-breaking 297 million-ton corn crop (up nearly three per cent from the previous year) to reduce import needs.

Interestingly, the USDA and China previously aligned on realized Chinese corn imports for the 2022-23 season (ended last September), both estimating 18.7 million tons.

However, their initial outlooks for the current 2023-24 season diverged, with the USDA holding firm at 23 million tons while China revised its estimate upwards by two million tons.