US crude imports to hit 50-y low in ’25 – EIA

US crude oil imports are projected to drop by over 20 per cent to 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, the lowest level since 1971, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) latest outlook.

Rising domestic production, forecasted to reach 13.5 million bpd in 2025, will outpace declining refinery runs, reducing the need for imports.

Brent crude oil prices are expected to decline to $74 per barrel by 2025, while natural gas prices rise to $3.00/MMBtu due to tighter storage. Electricity generation will see renewables grow to 25 per cent of the mix, while natural gas use falls to 40 per cent.

The report highlights steady CO2 emissions, a balanced oil market, and a 2 per cent increase in electricity demand this winter driven by colder weather.

Attribution: Short-Term Energy Outlook STEO December 2024

Subediting: M. S. Salama