US payrolls expected to rise by 200,000 for 4th consecutive month – poll

March saw continued robust employment gains in the US, with moderated wage growth suggesting a stable labour market that fuels the economy with minimal inflation risk, as per a Bloomberg report on Sunday.

According to Bloomberg’s survey, US payrolls are expected to rise by at least 200,000 for the fourth consecutive month, while average hourly earnings are projected to increase by 4.1 per cent year on year (YoY), the smallest gain since mid-2021.

Resilient hiring maintains demand and economic momentum while inflation slows down, allowing Federal Reserve policymakers to postpone interest rate adjustments as they monitor price trends.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, along with other policymakers like John Williams, Adriana Kugler, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, Lorie Logan, and Thomas Barkin, will provide insights this week.

Increased labour supply is helping to mitigate wage pressures, preventing a sustained inflationary surge.

The upcoming job openings data will offer insight into labour demand trends, while purchasing managers’ surveys will provide further economic indicators.

Internationally, central banks from Canada to Chile will make interest rate decisions, with additional focus on inflation data across various regions, including Europe and Latin America.

In Europe, inflation data from Germany and the eurozone will influence ECB policy decisions. Central banks in Sweden and Switzerland will also provide insights into their monetary policies.

In Africa, Sierra Leone may raise borrowing costs due to high inflation, while Lesotho and Kenya are expected to maintain their interest rates.

In Latin America, Chile is likely to cut interest rates, while Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Colombia will release economic data influencing their respective central banks’ decisions.