EIA predicts continued OPEC+ oil production cuts through ’28

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) will continue to restrict oil production through 2028.

According to the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2023 (IEO2023) released on Thursday, OPEC Middle East producers will aim to maintain a relatively balanced global crude oil market. While non-OPEC+ countries are expected to increase their oil production, the EIA believes that OPEC+ will need to curtail its own output to offset this growth.

The report projects a decline of 4.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in OPEC Middle East crude oil production between 2023 and 2028. As a result, crude oil exports from the Middle East are likely to decrease during this period, particularly as refinery capacity expands.

Attribution: US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Global Refining Outlook