Global raw sugar prices very likely to see 20% hike in ‘24

Global raw sugar prices are predicted to rise by almost 20 per cent annually in 2024 as the global market shifts into a deficit in the upcoming season, according to a Reuters poll of 12 traders and analysts.

According to the poll’s median forecast, sugar will end the year at 24.5 cents per pound, up 5 per cent from Tuesday’s close and up as much as 19 per cent from levels at the end of last year.

Despite a slight decline in the cane crop, the leading production region in Brazil, Centre-South is expected to continue producing high volumes of sweetener because mills prefer to produce it over ethanol, a biofuel.

However, India, the world’s second-largest producer, is predicted to see a decline in output. The country was expected to produce 31.6 million tons of sugar during the current 2023–2024 season (October–September) and 29 million tons during the following 2024–2025 season.

“The sugar market remains stressed. Relying on a single source of supply is unhealthy, and Centre-South Brazil cannot save the market alone. Without growth in India, global sugar production in 2024/25 is likely to fall,” trader and supply chain services company Czarnikow stated.

According to the poll, the global sugar deficit for 2024–2025 will be 700,000 tons, while the surplus of 500,000 metric tons for the current season (2023–2024) (October to September) was predicted by the median estimate.

Leading producer Brazil’s Centre-South sugar production was expected at 42.1 million tons in 2024/25 (April to March) season, media estimates showed as oppose to the International Sugar Organisation (ISO) estimates that 42.1 million tons have been produced so far this season.

Despite a Center-South cane crop that poll respondents predict will yield 620 million tons in the upcoming 2024–2025 season as opposed to an estimated 645 million tons this season, the ISO reports that there may be a slight increase in Brazilian output the following season.

Instead of producing ethanol from cane, Brazilian mills are using more cane for sugar production. Respondents to a Reuters survey predicted that 51.5 per cent of the production mix would be made up of sugar next season.

“The 24/25 Brazil crop seems very unlikely to fulfil the high figures that were around late Dec/early Jan. Global stocks remain tight whereas a substantial surplus would be needed to replenish them – which now seems very unlikely,” analysts Green Pool commented.

Forecasts for white sugar prices at the end of the year indicated that they would reach $700 per metric ton, up 17 per cent from levels observed at the end of 2023 and up 6 per cent from Tuesday’s close.