Global trade may reach $32t in ’24 – UNCTAD report

UNCTAD forecasts global trade to reach almost $32 trillion in 2024, but it is not expected to exceed the 2022 record. Merchandise trade rose by one per cent from January to March, while services trade grew by 1.5 per cent.

In Q1 2024, global trade growth was driven by increased exports from China by nine per cent, India by seven per cent, and the US three per cent. However, Europe’s exports stagnated, and Africa’s exports declined by five per cent.

Developing economies and South-South trade witnessed a significant boost, with both imports and exports growing by around two per cent in Q1 2024.

Developed countries, on the other hand, saw flat import activity with a modest one per cent increase in exports. However, the UNCTAD noted a five per cent year-on-year decline in South-South trade compared to the same period in 2023.

Trade growth in Q1 2023 varied by sector. Green energy and AI products had the highest growth, with high-performance servers up by 25 per cent. Electric vehicles also saw a 25 per cent increase in trade value.

Trade growth varied significantly across sectors in Q1 2023. Green energy and AI-related products showed the strongest growth, with high-performance servers seeing a 25 per cent increase in trade value.

UNCTAD highlighted potential obstacles to trade growth in 2024, such as geopolitical tensions, higher shipping costs, and new industrial policies.

There is a risk that a shift towards domestic industries and trade restrictions could hamper international trade expansion.

Attribution: UN trade and development statement