IEA: Oil markets to stay well-supplied until ’30

Oil markets will remain well-supplied until 2030, though maintaining a strong focus on energy security remains crucial amid sector transformations. Despite a slowing global demand for oil due to energy transitions, production is expected to increase significantly, alleviating market pressures.

The International Energy Agency (IEA’s) report predicts steady growth in demand fueled by Asian economies, aviation, and petrochemical sectors, but this will be countered by factors like electric car sales and efficiency improvements.

Global oil demand is projected to plateau near 106 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the decade, with supply capacity surpassing demand growth, reaching nearly 114 million barrels per day by 2030.

This surplus could have significant implications for oil markets, including OPEC+ economies and the US shale industry. Despite demand slowing, it’s still expected to increase by 3.2 million barrels per day by 2030, driven by emerging Asian economies and the petrochemical industry.

Non-OPEC+ producers are leading capacity expansion, with the US alone contributing 2.1 million bpd. Refining capacity is set to expand by 3.3 million bpd by 2030, sufficient to meet demand, leading to potential refinery closures towards the end of the outlook period.

Attribution: International Energy Agency (IEA) Oil 2024 Analysis and Forecast to 2030.