OPEC+ revises ’24 oil demand, supply forecasts

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) has slightly revised its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 2.0 million barrels per day (bpd), still above the pre-pandemic average of 1.4 million bpd. This adjustment of 80,000 bpd reflects the latest data.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) demand is expected to increase by 0.1 million bpd, with all growth coming from OECD Americas, while non-OECD demand is projected to rise by 1.9 million bpd. For 2025, OPEC+ has adjusted the global oil demand growth forecast to 1.7 million bpd, driven mainly by non-OECD countries like China and India.

On the supply side, OPEC+ forecasts that the non-Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) liquids supply will grow by 1.2 million bpd in 2024, led by the US, Canada, and Brazil. The forecast for 2025 remains at 1.1 million bpd. Meanwhile, DoC countries are expected to see a modest increase in natural gas liquids and non-conventional liquids, averaging 8.3 million bpd in 2024 and 8.4 million bpd in 2025. In August, DoC countries reduced crude oil production to 40.66 million bpd, down by 304,000 bpd from the previous month.

Attribution: OPEC+ September 2024 report

Subediting: M. S. Salama