IMF keeps Egypt’s real GDP growth forecast for 2022, but sees slower later

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated Egypt’s real GDP growth in 2022 at 5.9 percent, the same as forecast in April, but the growth could be slower in 2023.

The Fund has revised Egypt’s growth down to 4.8 percent in 2023 due to the negative repercussions of the war in Ukraine that severely hit the country’s tourism sector besides the food prices hikes, said Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director of the Research Department at the IMF.

Brooks made her remarks during a virtual press briefing held on Tuesday for the release of the fund’s updated World Economic Outlook report.

In April, the fund upgraded its forecast for Egypt’s real GDP growth in 2022 by 0.3 percent to 5.9 percent, up from 5.6 percent expected in January, before slowing down to five percent in 2023. These projections were the highest among oil importer countries across the Middle East region.

IMF expected Egypt’s inflation to continue to accelerate, reaching 8.7 percent in 2022 and 14 percent in 2023, Brooks added.

As for the anticipated loan deal with Egypt, Brooks said the IMF’s mission completed talks with Egyptian authorities in July and the deal is awaiting approval from the Fund’s board of directors.

The loan is under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, which is the same programme Egypt obtained its $12 billion loan to execute its economic reform programme during the November 2016-July 2019 period.

The new facility programme is projected to take four years with an expected loan amount of $6 billion up to $10 billion according to the country’s quota.