Russia projects budget deficit of 0.5% of GDP for ’25

The Russian government’s draft federal budget for 2025 and the 2026-2027 planning period forecasts a budget deficit of approximately 0.5 per cent of GDP in 2025, increasing to 0.9 per cent in 2026 and 1.1 per cent in 2027. This three-year budget is built on a base-case economic outlook projecting moderate growth of 2.5-2.8 per cent of GDP.

Projected budget revenues are set at 40.3 trillion roubles ($430 billion) in 2025, rising to 41.8 trillion roubles in 2026 and 43.2 trillion roubles in 2027. Meanwhile, expenditure is planned at 41.5 trillion roubles in 2025, 44 trillion roubles in 2026, and 45.9 trillion roubles in 2027.

The non-oil and gas deficit is expected to decrease to 5 per cent of GDP by 2027, down 2.5 percentage points from 2024. Public borrowing will primarily finance the deficit, with public debt projected to remain at safe levels.