The global economy could be exposed to $14.5 trillion worth of losses over a five-year period from a hypothetical geopolitical conflict that causes widespread disruption to supply chains, insurance market Lloyd’s of London said on Wednesday.

“With more than 80 per cent of the world’s imports and exports – around 11 billion tons of goods – at sea at any given time, the closure of major trade routes due to a geopolitical conflict is one of the greatest threats to the resources needed for a resilient economy.” Lloyd’s scenario read.

“The economic impacts of this scenario stem primarily from severe damage to infrastructure in the conflict region and the need for realignment of global trade networks due to the enforcement of sanctions and the effects of compromised shipping lines.”

Attribution:Lloyd’s geopolitical conflict scenario