Global coal demand to plateau in coming years – IEA

Global coal demand is expected to plateau in the coming years after reaching a record high in 2024, driven by the growing role of renewable energy in electricity generation, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The report reveals that global coal use has surged post-pandemic, reaching 8.77 billion tons in 2024, but is likely to level off through 2027 as clean energy technologies continue to expand.

China, the world’s largest coal consumer, remains central to this trend, with coal consumption in its electricity sector expected to stabilise despite strong electricity demand driven by factors like electrification and population growth. The country’s ongoing investments in solar, wind, and nuclear power are expected to limit further increases in coal use, though weather-related variations in renewable generation could cause short-term fluctuations.

In advanced economies, coal demand has already peaked and is projected to decline through 2027, aided by supportive policies and the availability of alternative energy sources. However, emerging economies such as India, Indonesia, and Vietnam continue to see rising coal demand due to increasing electricity needs.

International coal trade is on track to reach a record 1.55 billion tons in 2024, although global volumes are expected to decline after 2027, with thermal coal seeing the largest reduction. Asia remains the hub for coal trade, with China, India, Japan, and other countries driving imports, while Indonesia and Australia lead as exporters.

Attribution: The International Energy Agency (IEA)

Subediting: M. S. Salama