OPEC+ leaves ’25-26 oil forecast unchanged

OPEC+ forecasts global oil demand to remain unchanged at 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) for both 2025 and 2026, with non-OECD countries continuing to drive the increase. Non-DoC liquids supply – i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation- is expected to grow by 1.1 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, primarily from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway.

In December, the OPEC Reference Basket rose by 0.1 per cent to $73.07 per barrel, while ICE Brent fell by 0.4 per cent to $73.13/b. NYMEX WTI increased by 0.2 per cent to $69.70/b, and GME Oman rose 0.9 per cent to $73.16/b.

Market sentiment improved as hedge funds closed short positions in NYMEX WTI and GME Oman futures.

Refining margins weakened in the US Gulf Coast and Singapore but strengthened in Rotterdam due to increased holiday season demand. In the tanker market, rates varied, with declines on Middle East-to-East routes and gains on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route.

OECD commercial oil stocks dropped by 8.4 mb in November, now 171 mb below the 2015–2019 average.

Attribution: Amwal Al Ghad English

Subediting: Y.Yasser