How would Brexit vote affect immigration?

By aya salah On Jul 11, 2016

“Take back control of our borders” proved a potent message for those who campaigned for Britain to leave the EU. Now that the country has voted for Brexit, immigration will be one of the big issues in the divorce negotiations. What is at stake? Here are answers to some of the key questions.

How many EU citizens live in the UK and what will happen to them?

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About 3m EU nationals are in the UK and they make up about 6.6 per cent of the workforce. It is likely that those already here will be allowed to stay. For a start, 71 per cent of them have been here for five years or more (based on 2015 data), which means they qualify for permanent residence. The rest will probably have their rights “grandfathered” so they can stay too, according to comments made by prominent Leave politicians during the campaign.

However, there will still be tricky questions to resolve about whether EU residents in the UK will have the right to bring over family members, for example.

What about people who move to the UK between now and the final “divorce date”?

This is unclear. Chris Grayling, a senior minister on the Leave side of the government, told the FT last week the UK might take early action to restrict free movement if it proved necessary to “prevent a massive influx of people” before the official Brexit date. But that would break EU rules on free movement and likely enrage Brussels.

Will the UK close the borders to EU migrants after Brexit?

The borders will not close, but there will probably be new rules about who can come in. While it is possible the UK will agree to maintain free movement of labour in return for access to the EU’s single market (which is the arrangement in Norway), that outcome seems unlikely given the Leave campaign’s promise to “take back control” of immigration.

Many Leave campaigners have called for an “Australian-style points system”. Points systems allow countries to admit migrants based on their characteristics, such as language, qualifications, work experience and occupation. In Australia, the government sets limits on the numbers of people it will admit in different professions. For example, it decided last year to admit (in addition to workers sponsored by employers) up to 1,000 childcare workers, 1,092 medical imaging professionals and 1,230 electrical engineers, according to the Oxford University Migration Observatory.

Where would that leave employers of low-skilled migrants such as cleaners and waiters?

Some sectors of the UK economy have come to rely on EU workers: they account for almost 8 per cent of the 5.7m people employed in shops, hotels and restaurants, for example. It is not clear whether a post-Brexit immigration policy would admit low-skilled workers. Certainly, the UK’s current migration policy on non-EU migration does not. Three-quarters of EU citizens working in the UK would not meet the current visa requirements for non-EU workers.

What will happen to UK nationals already living in the EU?

The Brexit debate has caused profound unease among Britons living in the rest of the EU. Whether on Spain’s Costa del Sol or in the villages of southern France, UK nationals fear that many of the services and privileges they enjoy — such as easy access to the public health service and pension portability — will come under scrutiny now that Britain is set to leave the EU.

Common sense suggests that the Spanish government, for instance, will have no interest in making life hard for the hundreds of thousands of Britons living in the country; the coastal property market, for example, would be severely affected should large numbers of Britons decide to return to the UK.

At the same time, the uncertain situation of expatriate Britons may give EU governments a powerful lever in future talks about the UK’s recast relationship with Europe.

“Leaving the EU would mean that British citizens would lose the right to move freely, work and do business in the largest economic area, the largest market in the world,” Mariano Rajoy, Spanish prime minister, warned this month.

How easy will it be for UK nationals to move to the EU?

Steve Peers, a professor at Essex University who specialises in EU law, says it is likely that highly skilled UK workers would have to apply for a so-called Blue Card — an EU-wide work permit for highly skilled non-EU citizens — or qualify as an intra-company transferee. Less skilled workers would probably be subject to national laws. But in truth it all depends on the negotiations.

“The negative consequences of UK withdrawal from the EU for British expatriates could be avoided if the UK government of the time were willing to treat EU citizens who were living in (or wanted to come to) the UK generously,” he wrote in a blog post before the referendum.

source: Financial Times