Egypt’s Coup to Shift Political Balances in Middle East – Turkey Paper

Given Egypt’s crucial role and central position in the politically fragile Middle East, the military coup that ousted the country’s first democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi, is likely to have a tremendous impact on the balance of power in the region.

Currently, Egypt, the heavyweight in the Middle East, is experiencing critical days as the armed forces ousted Morsi on Wednesday after just a year in power, installing a temporary civilian government, suspending the constitution and calling for new elections. Morsi denounced it as a “full coup” by the military.

Since Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s February 2011 ouster, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB or Ikhwan) has emerged as Egypt’s most potent political force, and MB leader Morsi was elected Egypt’s first civilian president after the country experienced a revolution that took place following a popular uprising that began on Jan. 25, 2011.

It was the Arab Spring — which occurred unexpectedly in the Arab world starting at the end of 2010 and created a knock-on effect, resulting in the fall of dictators in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya — that brought Morsi to power. However, experts believe that the failure of the MB in Egypt would lead to damage to the image of Islamist political parties in the other Arab Spring countries where they gained the top positions soon after the Arab revolutions.

“The developments in Egypt would have a profound impact not only in the country but also in the region as a whole. More importantly, the coup against the MB in Egypt will have a negative impact on the countries that experienced the Arab Spring. In those countries, Islamist parties may lose credibility in the eyes of their people due to the failure of the MB in Egypt. These parties may also lose votes in coming elections. Islamist political parties would definitely be harmed by the situation in Egypt,” said Cahit Tuz, Middle East adviser to the Turkish Parliament, to Sunday’s Zaman.

Experts noted that the fall of Morsi in Egypt, which is the birthplace of the MB movement, will deal a severe blow to the entire political Islam movement in the Middle East, adding that it will raise questions in the countries in the region, including Tunisia, about the success of Islamist political parties in governing.

Experts believe that although the MB won the elections with huge support, Morsi made many mistakes — a situation that undermined the image of Islamist political movements throughout the region.

“Ikhwan should revise its whole strategy regarding policies. Many are afraid that the current crackdown on the MB will radicalize the Islamist movements. The MB movement should be rational,” Ali Bakeer, an expert from the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (USAK), told Sunday’s Zaman.

Comparing the Ennahda Party in Tunisia with the MB in Egypt, Bakeer stated that the Tunisian experience was more mature than the Egyptian one. “Tunisians have managed to reach a consensus unlike in the Egyptian case. The MB in Egypt made many mistakes.  Egypt’s experience was not good,” said Bakeer.

Agreeing with Bakeer, Tuz maintained that Morsi failed to take concrete steps after he took office — a situation he describes as “a great loss for political Islam.” “Morsi’s situation in Egypt harmed political Islam,” added Tuz.

Fall of Morsi to have impact on policies of regional countries

Experts believe that the fall of Morsi will not only have an impact on political Islam in the region but it will also affect the foreign policies of the regional countries, shifting the balance of power in the region.

While the Gulf States, like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, have expressed their support for the Egyptian military’s removal of Morsi, the fall of the Egyptian leader is bad news for countries like Turkey and Qatar.

Ankara has lost its key ally in the region after the army ousted Morsi, who enjoyed a close relationship with Ankara during his one-year presidency. The overthrow of a democratically elected leader in a country via a military coup was harshly received by senior Turkish officials, who consider the move unacceptable.

Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), whose officials have close relations with members of Morsi’s moderate Islamist party, the Freedom and Justice Party, declared their support for Morsi, denouncing the overthrow of the Egyptian president in an anti-democratic manner.

Also, among the wealthy Gulf Arab states, only Qatar has close MB ties.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have had strained relations with Cairo since Morsi’s Freedom and Justice Party came to office. Both Gulf countries developed a deep antipathy to the MB as its power grew across the Middle East over the past two-and-a-half years of uprisings — a situation they consider as a threat to their country’s stability.

“The coup got support from oil-rich Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which have deep concerns about the revolutionary ideas and the MB ideology and its influence in the region. So, they declared their diplomatic support for the coup. Both Qatar and Turkey have lost their new partner in the region,” Ahmed Tohamy, researcher at the National Center for Sociological and Criminological Center based in Cairo, told Sunday’s Zaman.

The UAE’s Supreme Court last week sentenced to prison 69 people claimed to have links with the Egyptian MB. Separately, 30 Emiratis and Egyptians are accused of setting up an illegal branch of Egypt’s MB. The trial was condemned by international human rights groups and criticized even by Abu Dhabi’s close ally London.

Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE indicated in their statements that they could increase their ties with the new transitional government of Egypt.

According to Tohamy, the fall of Morsi would also play into the hands of Israel, which was uneasy over the Egyptian president’s support for Hamas, an offshoot of the MB, which has made major political gains in Egypt since the Arab Spring.

“Israel will also have an advantage in the region after the fall of Morsi, who used to support Hamas in the Gaza Strip and encourage Islamic concepts and policy aimed at isolating Israel in the region,” said Tohamy.

Source: Today’s Zaman