EIA updates energy outlook

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its energy outlook, navigating recent developments such as Hurricane Beryl’s impact on the Texas Gulf Coast.

Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $89 per barrel in the second half of 2024, up from $84 in the first half, driven by ongoing global inventory withdrawals and sustained OPEC+ production cuts. Meanwhile, US households are expected to spend 2.3 per cent of disposable income on gasoline in 2024, decreasing to 2.2 per cent in 2025, due to lower prices and improved vehicle efficiency.

Natural gas prices are anticipated to rise to nearly $2.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) by late 2024, reflecting reduced production earlier in the year and increased demand from the electric power sector.

The US electric power sector reported a 5 per cent surge in generation in the first half of 2024, with an expected 2 per cent increase for the latter half. Solar power generation is expected to rise by 42 per cent compared to 2023 levels.

The forecast also indicates a shift in power generation dynamics, with coal poised to play a larger role and natural gas less so, particularly during winter months.

Attribution: US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report