US surpasses China as Germany’s top trader

The United States has surpassed China to become Germany‘s primary trading partner in the initial quarter of the year, as per Reuters’ analysis of official data from the German statistics office.

Trade between Germany and the US, encompassing both exports and imports, amounted to 63 billion euros ($68 billion) from January to March, while the corresponding figure for China stood just under 60 billion euros.

In 2023, China retained its position as Germany’s foremost trading partner for the eighth consecutive year, with trade volumes reaching 253 billion euros. “German exports to the US have now risen further due to the robust economy there, while both exports to and imports from China have fallen,” Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer stated, explaining the first quarter shift.

Stamer further highlighted structural factors contributing to this change, noting China’s ascent in the value chain, leading to increased domestic production of erstwhile German-imported sophisticated goods, alongside German companies shifting towards local production rather than exporting to China.

While Germany has expressed intentions to lessen its reliance on China, citing political disparities and condemning Beijing’s “unfair practices” in its inaugural China strategy declaration last year, Berlin’s policy measures to reduce dependencies remain ambiguous.

According to Juergen Matthes from the German Economic Institute IW, German imports from China plummeted nearly 12 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in the initial quarter, while exports to China saw a marginal decline of just over 1 per cent, attributed to the underperformance of the Chinese economy compared to expectations, juxtaposed with the surpassing performance of the US economy.

Presently, the US accounts for approximately 10 per cent of German goods exports, whereas China’s share has dwindled to less than 6 per cent, noted Matthes. He further added “The fact that the Chinese economy is performing worse than many had hoped, while the US economy is exceeding expectations, is presumably contributing to this,”

Nonetheless, the continuity of this trend remains uncertain. Dirk Jandura, president of the BGA trade association, remarked, “If the White House administration changes after the U.S. elections in November and moves more in the direction of closing off markets, this process could come to a standstill,”