Fitch affirms Egypt’s ‘B’ rating with stable outlook

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Egypt’s long-term credit rating at ‘B’ with a stable outlook, citing its growth potential and international support, while highlighting high debt-servicing costs, external financing needs, inflation and geopolitical risks.

Egypt’s GDP growth accelerated to 5.1 per cent in FY2025/2026, supported by tourism, export-oriented manufacturing and household consumption. Fitch expects growth to moderate to 4.7 per cent in FY2026/2027.

Gross international reserves rose by $5.5 billion in the first eight months of 2026 to $54.4 billion. Meanwhile, the current account deficit widened to 5.1 per cent of GDP in FY2025/2026, but Fitch expects it to narrow to below 3.5 per cent by FY2027/2028.

Inflation is forecast to average 12.3 per cent in FY2026/2027, then fall below 10 per cent in FY2027/2028.

Fitch expects the government budget deficit to widen to 5.8 per cent of GDP in FY2026/2027 from 5.3 per cent in the previous fiscal year, before narrowing to below 5 per cent in FY2027/2028.

Government debt is projected to decline to 72 per cent of GDP by the end of FY2027/2028, although high interest costs and governance challenges continue to weigh on Egypt’s credit rating.