Global public debt to exceed $100T by year-end – IMF 

Global public debt is set to exceed $100 trillion, or around 93 per cent of global GDP, by the end of 2024, according to the IMF’s October 2024 Fiscal Monitor.

The debt level is expected to reach nearly 100 per cent of GDP by 2030, marking a rise of 10 percentage points compared to 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.

While public debt will stabilise or decline in two-thirds of countries, it could still increase significantly in others due to factors like spending pressures, optimism bias in projections, and unidentified debt, the report said.

In a severely adverse scenario, global debt could soar to 115 per cent of GDP within three years—almost 20 percentage points higher than current estimates.

The IMF calls for larger fiscal adjustments, recommending a cumulative tightening of about 3.8 per cent of GDP by 2029, compared to the current average adjustment of 1 per cent of GDP over six years.

It warns that advanced economies need to focus on reforms and expenditure reprioritisation, while emerging markets should broaden tax bases and enhance revenue collection.

A gradual pace of adjustment could reduce negative impacts on growth and inequality by 40 per cent compared to abrupt tightening.

The report stresses the importance of fiscal governance, urging countries to closely monitor risks from contingent liabilities in state-owned enterprises.