Oil prices surge on Thursday

Oil prices surged on Thursday as doubts over a fragile two-week Middle East ceasefire raised concerns about restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose $3.69, or 3.9 per cent, to $98.44 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $3.47, or 3.7 per cent, to $97.88.

Both benchmarks had fallen below $100 in the previous session, with WTI posting its largest drop since April 2020, on optimism that the ceasefire would reopen the strait. Analysts, however, cautioned that geopolitical risks remain, with no clarity on US-Iran talks or a meaningful reopening of the waterway, which channels about 20 per cent of global oil and gas supplies.

Continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Iranian warnings against peace talks have cast doubt on the ceasefire’s viability. Shippers say they need clear terms before resuming transit, while Iranian maps indicate safe paths around mines. Attacks on regional oil facilities, including pipelines in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE, have further heightened risk.

Goldman Sachs lowered its Q2 2026 forecasts for Brent and WTI to $90 and $87 a barrel, down from $99 and $91, citing persistent market uncertainty.

Attribution: Reuters