Oil prices surge on Monday 

Oil prices jumped sharply on Monday after President Trump called Iran’s response to a US peace proposal “unacceptable,” reigniting supply fears. Brent crude rose nearly 4 per cent to $105.33 a barrel, while US (West Texas Intermediate WTI) climbed 4.64 per cent to $99.85 — reversing last week’s 6 per cent losses that had come on hopes of an imminent deal.

The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and Saudi Aramco’s CEO warned Sunday that roughly 1 billion barrels of oil have been lost over the past two months, with markets needing time to stabilize even if flows resume. Three more tankers exited the strait last week with trackers switched off to evade Iranian threats, highlighting the continued strain on Middle East exports. China, the world’s top oil importer, saw inbound shipments fall to a near four-year low in April as a result.

Market focus now turns to Trump’s visit to Beijing on Wednesday, where he is expected to press Chinese President Xi Jinping to use Beijing’s leverage over Tehran to broker a ceasefire. ANZ analysts cautioned that even if the acute shock fades by late 2026, depleted inventories and Hormuz risks will keep a geopolitical premium baked into prices — with Brent seen staying above $90 through 2026 and $80–$85 into 2027.

Attribution: Reuters