URGENT: OPEC+ lowers ’24 oil demand forecast

OPEC+ has revised its oil demand forecast for 2024, lowering it by 135 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) to 2.1 million barrels per day (mb/d). The adjustment reflects weaker-than-expected demand from China and updated data from the first two quarters of 2024. Despite this downward revision, the projected growth rate remains above the pre-pandemic average of 1.4 mb/d.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries are anticipated to experience a modest demand increase of 0.2 mb/d, while non-OECD countries are expected to contribute 1.9 mb/d to the overall demand growth.

Looking ahead to 2025, the global demand forecast has been reduced by 65 tb/d, bringing it to 1.8 mb/d. Demand growth within OECD countries is forecasted to increase by 0.1 mb/d, driven primarily by the Americas. Meanwhile, non-OECD demand is projected to rise by 1.7 mb/d, with China, the Middle East, Other Asia, and India leading the growth.

On the supply side, non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) liquids production is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2024 and 1.1 mb/d in 2025, primarily driven by output from the United States, Canada, and Brazil. Additionally, crude oil production by DoC countries increased by 117 tb/d in July, reaching an average of 40.91 mb/d.

Attribution: OPEC+ Monthly Report for August 2024