International tourist arrivals could drop 60-80% in 2020 amid coronavirus: UNWTO

The total number of international tourist arrivals could drop between 60 percent and 80 percent this year amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to the latest forecast by the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO).

The pandemic has already led to a 22 percent year-over-year fall in the number in the first quarter of this year, the UNWTO said in a report released on Thursday.

March was the worst hit month in the first quarter, with tourist arrivals plunging 57 percent as many countries started to implement measures — including shutting borders and airports — to control the spread of the virus, the report read.

The UNWTO outlined three possible scenarios on how the pandemic would affect international travel in the upcoming months:

• Gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early July would lead to tourist arrivals falling by 58 percent in 2020 compared to a year ago;
• If the opening of international borders and lifting of travel restrictions start in early September, drop in tourism would hit 70 percent;
• If border closures and travel restrictions are eased in early December, tourist arrivals would dive 78 percent year-over-year.