Conflict Squeezes Syrian Economy

The conflict across Damascus has tightened an already severe economic squeeze on the Syrian capital, shaking a key supply route, trapping workers at home and sending business plummeting during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

Fuel queues have snaked through the city this week and shops have been shuttered, as violence disrupted traffic and supplies on the main road linking the capital to the other key cities of Homs, Hama and Aleppo.

After a week of the heaviest clashes seen in Damascus and Aleppo, the biggest city and a crucial commercial centre, Syrians in the capital are braced for the fighting to tighten the economic pressure already exerted by international sanctions and plunging output.

“It is out of control,” said one pro-regime businessman, in a sign of the heat being felt by a merchant class long loyal to the regime. “This is their [rebel fighters] main target: to cause chaos in the country.”

Shelling by President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and battles with opposition gunmen have laid waste to some areas of Damascus and had an impact far beyond the conflict zones. Rubbish has piled on streets that are near-deserted in some districts and much quieter than normal in others – especially at night, when the city centre is pocked with checkpoints manned by the army and government militiamen.

Queues at gas stations have become commonplace, testing the already frayed nerves of Damascenes scared about the way the conflict that has engulfed the rest of the country for 16 months has finally arrived on their doorstep.

Dozens of cars blocked two of the three road lanes outside a station in the sprawling Mezzeh district, where only two of the eight pumps were operating and one of the workers said they were short of both petrol and staff. Nearby, blue gas cylinders lined the pavement’s edge and women in black abayas shaded themselves with bits of cardboard, as they awaited a delivery of the canisters many Syrians use for cooking.

One young woman in the petrol queue said she was angry at the situation, as she had had to leave her sick father at home to trawl round four gas stations looking for fuel. Another onlooker blamed Mr Assad’s regime for the problems. “They are thieves who fill their pockets,” he said. “He is going to fall.”

The government this week blamed the petrol shortage on an unspecified logistical problem that it said would be solved soon.

One reason for disruption to supplies of fuel and other goods, residents and analysts say, is the increasing violence around the main road leading to the cities to the north and the country’s sliver of coast in the north-west. Earlier this week, a burnt-out tanker straddled the central reservation of the highway on the outskirts of Damascus, an apparent casualty of attacks that residents of the capital say are becoming increasingly frequent in the area near the city’s rebellious north-eastern suburbs.

On Monday, unidentified gunman opened fire on a company workers’ bus on that section of road, killing two men and critically injuring several others, according to executives of the business, who asked for it not to be identified.

David Butter, an economic analyst and former head of Middle East research at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said there were reports that the lack of state security on highways had triggered the creation of a “small industry” for black market operators filling up canisters from tankers along the side of the road.

While the critical Damascus-Beirut highway remains open, people in Aleppo say fighting in the surrounding countryside has severely disrupted to roads north to Turkey, south to Hama and west to the coast.

In the centre of Damascus, the fighting has left many businesses short-staffed, as employees whose commute goes through or near conflict zones stay at home. While the government bombardment of rebel-held areas has driven thousands from their homes, many also sleep at friends or relatives’ houses to avoid potentially risky journeys at night. At the Dama Rose hotel, one woman explained the reason for her overnight stay in two words: “hot zone”, the term many Syrian use to describe conflict areas.

The ripple effect of the clashes has also killed commerce in many areas that would expect to be extra lively during Ramadan, when Muslims traditionally cook up big feasts to break their fast and lead vigorous nocturnal social lives.

In Damascus’ old city, a butcher named Adnan lamented that he’d had only five customers by late afternoon on the first day of Ramadan, compared with the hundreds he would expect during peacetime. “Usually I don’t have time to serve all the people,” he said. “So I can say people are afraid.”

A rumoured bread shortage over the weekend led to big queues at bakeries, a spending cap per customer and a brief black market that led one Damascene to pay 100 pounds for a packet costing 15 at the counter. The situation seemed back to normal on Tuesday – but, with most Damascenes expecting the fighting to continue, no one is ruling out a repeat.

Zawya