Standard Chartered sees Egypt’s pound at 49 per dollar by end-2026

Standard Chartered expects Egypt’s pound to strengthen against the US dollar by the end of the year, supported by continued carry-trade inflows, economic reforms and a stable global dollar environment, a senior bank economist said on Wednesday.

Bader Al Sarraf, Associate Director and Economist for the Middle East and North Africa at Standard Chartered, said the bank’s outlook differs from prevailing market expectations.

“Our view is that the Egyptian pound is strengthening by year-end,” Al Sarraf said at a media roundtable in Cairo.
He said the forecast depends on regional tensions not escalating further and on Egypt maintaining reform momentum, both of which would keep the carry-trade story “well and alive.”

“If they continue with this reform momentum in Egypt domestically, that will be another supportive factor for the carry trade,” he said.

The dollar matters too

A relatively stable US dollar would also help support the pound, Al Sarraf said.

“If we continue to see the trend that the dollar remains in a stable situation and doesn’t get much stronger by year-end, then that’s also another supportive factor,” he said.

Attribution: Amwal Al Ghad English