OPEC forecasts oil demand to grow by 0.6 mb/d in 2026

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects global oil demand to grow by about 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, following a slight downward revision from its previous assessment, before rebounding by about 2.2 mb/d in 2027.

Demand in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries is forecast to decline by about 40,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, while non-OECD demand is expected to rise by about 0.6 mb/d. In 2027, OECD demand is projected to increase by around 0.3 mb/d, with non-OECD demand growing by about 1.8 mb/d.

Meanwhile, non-Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) liquids production is forecast to expand by about 0.6 mb/d to average 54.8 mb/d in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment. Brazil, the United States, Canada and Argentina are expected to drive growth.

In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is projected to grow by a further 0.6 mb/d to average 55.5 mb/d, led by Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina. DoC natural gas liquids and non-conventional liquids are forecast to rise by about 0.1 mb/d to average 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027.